After Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens was indicted on seven felony counts, we moved our rating from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup”, and stated that we’d have to wait for more information before we could push this race further along the chart.
Not all of the dust has settled yet, but we feel comfortable enough in moving our rating of this race from “Tossup” to “Lean Democratic“. Even in a vacuum, Anchorage Mayor and Democrat Mark Begich would be a very strong candidate for statewide office in Alaska, but Begich is not running in any ordinary environment; he’s up against an indicted Senator whose numbers are circling the drain in the two most recent polls.
Since Stevens’ primary challengers — all five of them — are a feeble (if wealthy) bunch, we have to consider a primary loss or a resignation timed to allow the Alaska GOP to name a replacement to be unlikely scenarios. Stevens is a stubborn man, and he appears determined to hold out until November — a scenario that would be a big plus for Begich.
There’s still plenty of time for the situation to change (and change again), but for now, SSP is rating this race as Lean Democratic.
How often do you see an indicted politician survive reelection…
Oh wait, didn’t Bill Jefferson do that? Or was he indicted after his 2006 reelection?
That Stevens could have his trial and get acquitted before November. But that would require two huge “ifs”. First off, it normally takes over a year for criminal cases to get disposed of in the District of Columbia, and that includes plea bargains (which happen in probably 95-99% of cases). Cases which go to trial usually take a lot longer. It would be almost a miracle if this could happen in September, and would basically require neither side to file any pre-trial motions, or a judge who is really willing to shaft other litigants and clear time for Stevens.
The other thing, of course, is that Stevens would have to be acquitted. Meanwhile, he’s already filed a motion to transfer venue to Alaska, so that’s slowed things down. Though I’ll note that federal district court in Alaska has shorter wait-times than in DC, so if the judge grants the motion, the timing could work a bit in Stevens’ favor. Of course, the new judge might not be as accomodating in terms of even having time on his/her calendar to schedule a trial in September or October.
Anyhow, I recall that Tom DeLay also sought to try to “clear his name” quickly, and his case is still pending.